Quick Answer: Gold has surged past $5,000 per ounce and silver is trading above $81 in February 2026 — both near record highs. The driving force? Tariff-fueled inflation fears, a weakening dollar, and a global rush to safe-haven assets. Here's what's happening, why it matters, and where prices could go next.
If you've been watching precious metals prices this year, you already know something extraordinary is happening. Gold broke $5,000 per ounce. Silver — which surged nearly 150% last year — is trading above $81. These aren't coincidences. They're the direct result of one of the most turbulent tariff environments in modern history.
When tariffs go up, confidence in the broader economy goes down. Investors hedge against inflation, dollar weakness, and geopolitical instability by moving money into assets that hold their value through chaos. Gold and silver have been that refuge for thousands of years — and in 2026, that dynamic is playing out in real time.
The Tariff Timeline: What's Happened and Where Things Stand
To understand where gold and silver prices are heading, you need to understand what's been happening in trade policy — because the two are now tightly linked.
January 2026: The Trump administration threatened sweeping tariffs on eight European nations over the Greenland dispute. Gold jumped 2.1% to near $4,700 an ounce in a single session. Silver surged 4.4% on the same day. Markets responded immediately to the signal: trade war equals precious metals rally.
January 15, 2026: Trump declined to impose direct tariffs on critical mineral imports — a category that includes silver and platinum. Instead, the administration opted for bilateral price floor negotiations. Silver briefly plunged 8% on the news before recovering above $90, illustrating just how sensitive precious metals are to every tariff development.
February 20, 2026: The Supreme Court struck down Trump's broad "reciprocal" tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) in a landmark 6–3 ruling. Gold initially dipped on the news — the removal of uncertainty is generally negative for safe-haven assets — but quickly stabilized above $5,000 as markets digested what remained.
Right now: Despite the SCOTUS ruling, significant tariffs remain in place. Trump invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act to impose a 15% global import surcharge on most goods, replacing the struck-down IEEPA tariffs almost immediately. Trade uncertainty hasn't gone away — it's simply shifted shape. And gold and silver are still reflecting that uncertainty in their prices.
Are Gold and Silver Themselves Subject to Tariffs?
This is the question every precious metals buyer and investor is asking right now — and the answer is nuanced.
Gold and silver have historically been treated as monetary metals — exempt from standard import tariffs that apply to industrial goods. That exemption has remained intact through the current tariff regime. Gold and silver imports are not subject to the Section 232 tariffs that hit steel and aluminum, nor were they included in the IEEPA reciprocal tariffs before the Supreme Court struck those down.
Silver is listed as a critical mineral, which created significant uncertainty earlier this year about whether tariffs might be imposed. That uncertainty alone was enough to trigger a massive stockpiling response: warehouses linked to the Comex futures exchange in New York are currently holding around 434 million ounces of silver — roughly 100 million more than a year ago. Dealers, institutions, and investors rushed to move silver into U.S. vaults before any tariff could take effect.
Trump's decision to hold off on direct silver tariffs eased some of that pressure, but silver remains on the critical minerals list. Future tariff action is still possible, which continues to support prices and investor caution.
How Tariffs Indirectly Drive Gold and Silver Prices Higher
Even without direct tariffs on precious metals, the broader tariff environment is a major price driver. Here's the chain reaction:
Tariffs → Higher import costs → Inflation When the cost of imported goods rises, inflation follows. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of cash and bonds. Investors respond by buying assets that hold real value — historically, gold and silver at the top of that list.
Tariffs → Trade war fears → Dollar weakness Aggressive tariff policy damages trade relationships and introduces currency volatility. A weaker U.S. dollar makes gold — which is priced in dollars — more attractive to global buyers. When the dollar weakens, gold effectively becomes cheaper for foreign investors, increasing demand and pushing prices up.
Tariffs → Geopolitical instability → Safe-haven demand Trade disputes rarely stay contained to trade. The EU standoff, threats to Greenland, tensions with China — all of these feed into a broader narrative of geopolitical risk that has historically been gold's strongest driver. In February 2026, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are compounding tariff uncertainty to push both gold and silver higher.
Tariffs → Fed uncertainty → Rate hesitation → Gold rally If tariffs drive inflation while simultaneously slowing economic growth (stagflation), the Federal Reserve faces an impossible choice: raise rates to fight inflation, or cut rates to support growth? That uncertainty removes one of gold's traditional headwinds — rising interest rates — and allows it to climb unimpeded.
Where Are Gold and Silver Prices Now?
As of February 2026:
Gold is trading at approximately $5,025 per ounce, having touched $5,063 earlier this month. Goldman Sachs forecasts gold could climb toward $5,400 by the end of 2026, driven by continued central bank buying and sustained safe-haven demand.
Silver is trading around $81 per ounce after a historic run that saw it nearly triple over the past 18 months. Silver crossed $93 in mid-January before pulling back on the critical mineral tariff news, but has since stabilized well above long-term averages.
Both metals remain significantly elevated compared to historical norms — a reflection of how profoundly the tariff environment has changed the investment calculus for precious metals.
Gold vs. Silver: Which Is the Better Bet Right Now?
Both metals are benefiting from the tariff environment, but in different ways — and for different types of buyers.
Gold is the purer safe-haven play. It has no industrial exposure to tariff-related demand disruptions, and central banks worldwide have been buying gold aggressively as a dollar alternative. If trade war fears persist or escalate, gold is likely to continue outperforming.
Silver is more complex. It's both a safe-haven asset and a critical industrial metal — used extensively in solar panels, EVs, electronics, and medical devices. That dual role means silver can rally on safe-haven demand while simultaneously facing headwinds if tariffs slow industrial production. The tariff-driven stockpiling that pushed 100 million extra ounces into U.S. warehouses also creates a potential supply overhang.
The gold-to-silver ratio is a useful gauge here. Historically it has fluctuated between 70:1 and 85:1. When the ratio is at extremes, it often signals an opportunity in whichever metal is undervalued relative to the other. Monitoring this ratio in a volatile tariff environment can help investors and dealers time their positions more effectively.
What Comes Next? Key Things to Watch
The 15% global tariff surcharge: Trump's replacement for the struck-down IEEPA tariffs — a 15% blanket surcharge under Section 122 — keeps inflation pressures elevated. Watch how markets respond as this new tariff settles in.
U.S.–EU trade negotiations: A deal that meaningfully reduces tariffs on European goods could ease inflation fears and put modest downward pressure on gold prices. Any breakdown in those talks would do the opposite.
Federal Reserve policy: If inflation from tariffs forces the Fed to keep rates elevated longer than expected, that creates a headwind for gold. If the Fed pivots to cuts, gold's rally has room to run further.
Critical minerals review: Silver remains on the critical minerals list. If the administration reverses course and imposes direct silver tariffs, expect another sharp, tariff-driven price spike — and likely another stockpiling rush.
Central bank buying: Goldman Sachs noted that a recent slowdown in central bank gold purchases should be temporary. If central banks — particularly in China and emerging markets — resume aggressive buying, the $5,400 target becomes conservative.
Frequently Asked Questions About Tariffs, Gold & Silver
Are tariffs directly applied to gold and silver imports? Currently, no. Gold and silver are treated as monetary metals and have been exempt from the Section 232 and IEEPA tariffs. Silver remains on the critical minerals list, so future tariff action is possible but not currently in effect.
Why did gold hit $5,000 an ounce in 2026? Multiple factors converged: tariff-driven inflation fears, dollar weakness from trade war uncertainty, geopolitical instability, central bank buying, and strong safe-haven demand from retail and institutional investors.
Why did silver stockpiles in the U.S. jump by 100 million ounces? Fears that Trump might impose tariffs on silver imports prompted dealers and institutions to rush metal into U.S. warehouses before any restrictions could take effect. About 434 million ounces of silver are now held in Comex-linked warehouses in New York.
Is now a good time to buy gold or silver? This is a personal financial decision that depends on your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. What is clear is that the structural drivers supporting gold and silver — tariff-driven inflation, dollar weakness, and geopolitical uncertainty — remain very much in place as of February 2026.
How high could gold go in 2026? Goldman Sachs has a year-end 2026 target of $5,400 per ounce for gold. Other analysts have cited higher targets if trade war conditions worsen or central bank buying accelerates.
What is the gold-to-silver ratio telling us right now? The ratio is an important indicator of relative value between the two metals. Tracking it can help investors identify when one metal appears undervalued relative to the other — a particularly useful signal in volatile market conditions like today's.
The Bottom Line
The tariff environment of 2026 has become one of the most powerful tailwinds precious metals have seen in decades. Gold above $5,000, silver above $81 — these aren't flukes. They're the market's way of pricing in inflation risk, dollar uncertainty, and the geopolitical turbulence that aggressive trade policy inevitably produces.
For gold and silver investors and dealers, the key takeaway is this: the structural drivers are still intact. The Supreme Court changed the legal architecture of tariffs, but it didn't remove trade uncertainty — it simply reshuffled it. As long as that uncertainty persists, demand for real assets that hold their value will remain strong.
Watch the critical minerals list, watch the Fed, and watch the gold-to-silver ratio. In this environment, staying informed is the most valuable position you can hold.
