The upcoming meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on October 28-29, 2025 is a pivotal event for global financial markets. 

What the FOMC is facing

The committee is operating in a challenging environment: inflation remains above goal while job-market softness is increasing. In addition, key economic data has been delayed by a government shutdown, leaving policymakers to make decisions in the face of heightened uncertainty. 

Markets are pricing in a strong probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the October meeting. However, the real market driver may be the post-meeting statement and forecast projections rather than the cut itself. Any signal that future cuts will be modest or delayed may create volatility. 

Why this matters for gold and broader markets

A dovish outcome (rate cut + forward guidance signalling more easing) tends to favour gold, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Moreover, a weaker dollar and lower real yields support bullion prices. Conversely, a hawkish tone could temper gold’s upside and favour yield-sensitive assets.

Takeaway:

Investors should be prepared not just for what the FOMC does, but how it frames the future. Key parts to watch include:

  • Whether the Fed retains any reference to inflation risk or employment weakness

  • The summary of economic projections (if released) or commentary on future rate path

  • Any balance-sheet or quantitative-easing signals

In short: the next FOMC meeting may set the tone for interest-rate expectations into 2026 and act as a trigger for precious-metals repositioning.