In recent weeks, two of Wall Street’s leading institutions have raised their gold-price projections significantly. J.P. Morgan now sees gold averaging US$5,055 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, Bank of America (BofA) has raised its forecast to $5,000 per ounce by 2026, with an average assumption of $4,400 during that time frame.
What’s driving the bullish outlook?
The projections rest on several converging themes:
-
Aggressive central-bank gold buying, which supports structural demand for bullion.
-
Expectations of interest-rate cuts, leading to lower real yields and a weaker U.S. dollar, both of which favour gold.
-
Rising geopolitical and economic risk profiles (e.g., trade tensions, sovereign-debt concerns), which enhance bullion’s safe-haven appeal.
-
The view that present gold fundamentals—high prices, strong flows—may accelerate into a broader bull market.
Are the targets realistic?
While raising targets to ~$5,000/oz might appear ambitious, market participants are noting that analysts themselves are upwardly revising projections amid accelerating price momentum. For instance, gold has already surged past $4,000/oz for the first time.
Still, such targets assume favourable policy, currency and macro-risk outcomes. A near-term correction or policy surprise remains possible—BofA itself cautions about near-term pullbacks even as it lifts its long-term target.
Implications for investors
For investors seeking exposure to gold, these forecasts reinforce the argument that bullion is not only a hedge but potentially a core component of a strategic portfolio. If gold were to approach the $5,000/oz range, the magnitude of upside from current levels would attract both institutional and retail flows, potentially creating a self-reinforcing cycle.
Takeaway: With two major institutions aligning on ~$5,000/oz targets, the gold market is entering a period where expectation-setting matters. Whether or not gold actually reaches that level, the direction, timing and catalysts are worthy of close attention.
