The Federal Reserve (Fed) is scheduled to convene its two-day policy meeting on October 28 and 29, 2025, a critical juncture for both monetary policy and capital markets. 

Key considerations ahead of the meeting

Investors and analysts are watching closely for whether the Fed will cut its benchmark federal funds rate. Market pricing suggests a high likelihood of a 25 basis-point cut, possibly bringing the target range to 3.75 %-4.00 %. 

However, the backdrop is far from simple. The U.S. economy is facing conflicting signals: inflation remains elevated above the Fed’s 2 % goal, while key labor-market data are showing signs of softening. For example, Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently highlighted that employment downside risks are increasing even as inflation pressures persist. 

Moreover, the upcoming meeting will be shaped by data gaps. A U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of several key datasets, leaving the Fed to act with limited real-time information. 

What the policy decision might mean

If the Fed proceeds with a rate cut, it could have multiple implications:

  • Lower interest rates reduce the cost of borrowing, potentially boosting growth and risk assets.

  • A cut typically weakens the U.S. dollar and real yields, which historically supports non-yielding assets such as gold.

  • On the other hand, the Fed may signal caution or even pause cuts if inflation or other risks (e.g., geopolitical, financial instability) dominate the outlook.

Implications for markets and gold

Because many investors expect the cut, the outcome may be priced in, meaning the Fed’s forward guidance and accompanying statement may matter more than the cut itself. A “hawkish” tone in the statement—for example highlighting inflation risks or an intention to hold rates higher for longer—could dampen risk appetite and reduce upside for gold and other safe havens. Conversely, a dovish tone could provide a tailwind for gold.

Given the mounting uncertainty, positioning ahead of the October 28-29 meeting is critical. For investors in the precious-metals space, the meeting may act as a catalyst for renewed momentum if the tone shifts in favour of monetary easing.

Takeaway: The Fed’s next policy meeting comes at a pivotal moment. Markets should focus not only on the rate decision but on the accompanying statement, press conference and economic projections. These will shape how monetary policy evolves into 2026 and beyond.